The International Monetary Fund has released an updated review in which it has improved
its assessment of global economic growth. In 2023, global growth was 3.1%, 0.1 percentage
points higher than previously estimated. A similar figure of 3.1% is forecast for 2024, which
is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. For 2025, the expected growth is
3.2%.
What's behind the update:
The main reason for the improved forecast is the higher-than-expected economic resilience
of the United States, as well as positive results in emerging markets. Government support
for the economy in China also played a significant role.
Details on key countries:
– USA: GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024, driven by lower inflation and strong
consumption.
– China: The economic growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 4.6%, partly due to
government stimulus measures.
– Russia: The IMF has significantly increased its estimate of GDP growth in 2024 to 2.6%
(previously 1.1%). This is due to high spending on the defense industry and strong domestic
demand, supported by rising wages amid a labor shortage.
Inflationary trends:

Global inflation is projected to continue to decline to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. The
IMF expects that macroeconomic policy will gradually shift toward easing, as the threat of a
“hard landing” in the economy is now diminishing.
The main task for politicians:
The IMF believes that the priority for the near future is to maintain the course of finally
reducing inflation to its target, while adjusting monetary policy without creating additional
shocks to the economy.